← Grand Archive - Constructed @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water Astra RangerTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refluxal Ribbon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Starbirth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Weaving Manastream | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanishing Eclipse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corsair Captain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Foresight Lens | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meteoric Volley | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometary Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Radiant Vega | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alacritous Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poised Occlusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stellarion Shift | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sidereal Spellshot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |